Statistical significance of mash pH estimates?

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sixhotdogneck

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1.) Water/Mash calculators attempt to calculate the mash pH at chemical equilibrium.
2.) Homebrewers are incorrectly measuring the pH before chemical equilibrium.
3.) Homebrewers are incorrectly using their pH meters.
4.) Homebrewers do not measure the chemical equilibrium pH they simply "trust" the calculator.
5.) Homebrewers claim their water/mash calculators help them make good beer.

****************************************************************************

1.) What would the process be to verify the estimate of each water/mash calculator?
2.) How many samples would be required to make verification statistically significant?
3.) How close would the estimate have to be to the actual to be considered a good estimate?
 
1.) Water/Mash calculators attempt to calculate the mash pH at chemical equilibrium.
2.) Homebrewers are incorrectly measuring the pH before chemical equilibrium.
3.) Homebrewers are incorrectly using their pH meters.
4.) Homebrewers do not measure the chemical equilibrium pH they simply "trust" the calculator.
5.) Homebrewers claim their water/mash calculators help them make good beer.

****************************************************************************

1.) What would the process be to verify the estimate of each water/mash calculator?
2.) How many samples would be required to make verification statistically significant?
3.) How close would the estimate have to be to the actual to be considered a good estimate?

I agree with Corax, you're measuring cordwood with a micrometer (I read that somewhere, liked it).

To answer:

1. You'd have to do a lot of different malts, water profiles, etc. to do that. How you'd do that I have no idea, and I'm certainly not volunteering to help.

2. It's not how many samples, it's how many instances or cases. I can tell by the question that perhaps there may be some value in your taking a statistics course.

3. Again, you need to take a statistics course. How close depends on the standard deviation, the number of cases, and your own inclination as to how close is close enough. There is no standard against which you can judge this.

IMO, you're tilting at windmills here.
 
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1.) Water/Mash calculators attempt to calculate the mash pH at chemical equilibrium.
2.) Homebrewers are incorrectly measuring the pH before chemical equilibrium.
3.) Homebrewers are incorrectly using their pH meters.
4.) Homebrewers do not measure the chemical equilibrium pH they simply "trust" the calculator.
5.) Homebrewers claim their water/mash calculators help them make good beer.

****************************************************************************

1.) What would the process be to verify the estimate of each water/mash calculator?
2.) How many samples would be required to make verification statistically significant?
3.) How close would the estimate have to be to the actual to be considered a good estimate?
I'm not sure I understand your question? I use brunwater to get a estimated amount of lactic acid too add. After doing so I verifiy it's correct with my meter. If it's off I add more acid until I reach my target. I've found brunwater to be basically close enough within a few points. I've also tried beersmiths tool however its always recommend basically double what brunwater does. Again because I'm checking with my meter everytime/multiple times I know adding beersmiths suggestions would bring the ph way below my target and out of range. Cheers
 
Or here's a scary thought: maybe being +/- 0.2 pH units off your target doesn't make squat difference.
I agree with this comment. I don't think it could really be debated that ph makes a difference however I think it's more in the range than exact that matters but It's also all somewhat subjective. I brewed a terribly over astringent IPA once and my buddy LOVED it. I couldn't even drink it. cheers
 
A lot of rude and unnecessary negativity, insults and angst surrounding these questions.

Imagine what could be accomplished if you changed your attitudes and helped establish a procedure to test the calculators.

Say by following the procedures we began to collect data and discovered that Brunwater was consistently .2 pH off or that MME was always 1.5pH high, we could then use the context of the recipes and the data to further enhance the calculators, right?
 
Or here's a scary thought: maybe being +/- 0.2 pH units off your target doesn't make squat difference.

That's exactly what I said in my post, people are making good beer even though not everything is measured/estimated accurate or done "properly".
 
I agree with Corax, you're measuring cordwood with a micrometer (I read that somewhere, liked it).

To answer:

1. You'd have to do a lot of different malts, water profiles, etc. to do that. How you'd do that I have no idea, and I'm certainly not volunteering to help.

2. It's not how many samples, it's how many instances or cases. I can tell by the question that perhaps there may be some value in your taking a statistics course.

3. Again, you need to take a statistics course. How close depends on the standard deviation, the number of cases, and your own inclination as to how close is close enough. There is no standard against which you can judge this.

IMO, you're tilting at windmills here.

Your post is rude and insulting. Just because I don't have a college education in statistics doesn't mean I can't contribute ideas.
 
A lot of rude and unnecessary negativity, insults and angst surrounding these questions.

Imagine what could be accomplished if you changed your attitudes and helped establish a procedure to test the calculators.

Say by following the procedures we began to collect data and discovered that Brunwater was consistently .2 pH off or that MME was always 1.5pH high, we could then use the context of the recipes and the data to further enhance the calculators, right?
I'm not sure there is much more that can be done at this point. We already have a procedure to see how far off these programs are by just using them and then checking with the meter. I don't think your ever going to get it 100% as there's too many variables and imho who cares as .03 off is good enough. Mme is advertised as being superior by the creator *if* you take ph readings in advance of all your grain but I can't confirm that as it's way too complicated to possibly be worth it for .03 accuracy. I did try Mme *without* using all the extra stuff and it was way off similar to bs3. I could have been using it incorrectly however. Cheers
 
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Your post is rude and insulting. Just because I don't have a college education in statistics doesn't mean I can't contribute ideas.

Perhaps you can tell me how I can explain this to you in a style to which you will not take offense?

My point is that what you want to do you can't do. How would you like me to deliver that message?
 
So if 100 mashes are measured you have 100 samples (you're using the term "case" or "instance").

Each sample is mated with an estimate from each of the 5 calculators for that recipe.

So 100 samples - 5 estimates for each sample.

What could be derived from that?
 
Perhaps you can tell me how I can explain this to you in a style to which you will not take offense?

My point is that what you want to do you can't do. How would you like me to deliver that message?

Telling people who are asking questions about statistics to take a statistics course is rude and makes you look like an a*shole.
 
Telling people who are asking questions about statistics to take a statistics course is rude and makes you look like an a*shole.

Again, how should I have said this? I'm sorry you felt offended, but should I just have excised the thing about stat courses? Is that what the issue is?

You're asking questions that cannot be answered simply; unless you want me to deliver a statistics course here on HBT, how else could that information be delivered to you? An answer involves a normal curve, standard deviation, what a standard deviation represents, sufficient sample size, probability, confidence intervals, and signficance level and what that means. And if you want to posit a standard against which you'd develop an alternative hypothesis, then hypothesis testing.

And FWIW, I do teach statistics at the college level. You're asking "statistics" to do something it cannot do. If the questions were different "statistics" might be relevant, but not in this case.
 
I do teach statistics at the college level.

That explains your bad, know it all, holier than thou attitude...

Instead of insulting and throwing around statistics terms why not take a step down and in plain English explain what you believe would need to be done.
 
I'm still unsure what your direct question is? Are you trying to find out what program works best without a meter? It's pretty widely agreed on that brewnwater is generally the closest and the go to. In my experience it's been in the range everytime. I check with a better then normal meter each time. I can't imagine it being closer realistically? Side note I haven't read anything here that's anything insulting. Maybe speaking bluntly but definitely nothing off side
 
2.) Homebrewers are incorrectly measuring the pH before chemical equilibrium.
3.) Homebrewers are incorrectly using their pH meters.
4.) Homebrewers do not measure the chemical equilibrium pH they simply "trust" the calculator.
5.) Homebrewers claim their water/mash calculators help them make good beer.
A lot of rude and unnecessary negativity, insults and angst surrounding these questions.
Hmm I wonder why, when you start with generalizations that [all] homebrewers are doing it all wrong.

Are you making the One True Beer by chance?

Maybe it's time to have a homebrew and relax a little bit. We're making beer, not writing a holy text.
 
I'm still unsure what your direct question is? Are you trying to find out what program works best without a meter? It's pretty widely agreed on that brewnwater is generally the closest and the go to. In my experience it's been in the range everytime. I check with a better then normal meter each time. I can't imagine it being closer realistically? Side note I haven't read anything here that's anything insulting. Maybe speaking bluntly but definitely nothing off side

I think his question is more general. If I understand it correctly, I think he is asking whether or not we can prove that mash pH software is actually as accurate as we believe it to be. With all of the variables that come along with that, which he mentioned in his original post, what path can we take to form a solid foundation to prove or disprove the existing calculators.Personally, I do not know if my beer has gotten better because of how I treat my water...the jury is still out on whether it is the water or whether I have simply gotten more comfortable with my process. What I do know, is that brewing is science...and water is just a small peice of the puzzle when it comes to making high quality beer....So, in my mind, it's necessary to learn, but only a drop in the ocean in regards to what you need to know to be at the level of <Insert your favorite craft brewery here>.
 
I think his question is more general. If I understand it correctly, I think he is asking whether or not we can prove that mash pH software is actually as accurate as we believe it to be. With all of the variables that come along with that, which he mentioned in his original post, what path can we take to form a solid foundation to prove or disprove the existing calculators.Personally, I do not know if my beer has gotten better because of how I treat my water...the jury is still out on whether it is the water or whether I have simply gotten more comfortable with my process. What I do know, is that brewing is science...and water is just a small peice of the puzzle when it comes to making high quality beer....So, in my mind, it's necessary to learn, but only a drop in the ocean in regards to what you need to know to be at the level of <Insert your favorite craft brewery here>.
Hmm not trying to beat a dead horse here but I'm still not understanding. We can prove how accurate the software is by using at and taking the actual ph readings to compare. I do it every brew . Unless my meter is incorrect and I calibrate it before use what are we trying to figure out? In 55+ batches brunwater has never been off by .04. is the question specifically directed at people without meters trying to verify if it's correct?
 
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We know the answer to that. There are two parts to estimating mash pH. Accurately modeling the titration (acid/base) properties of malts so that the calculator has a representation of the malt the brewer is actually using is the first part. The second part is correctly processing the data represented by those models and, in that processimg accurately interpolating water, lactic acid, phosphoric acid... which may be added in an attempt to control mash pH. The current calculators attempt to do both parts and do neither well. There are some real, in fact, I think, unsurmountable, problems with part 1. Unless you measure each malt you intend to use and do it properly (which is a very laborious process described in a Sticky) you must rely on measurements made by someone else at some other time on some malt sample that is not the one you have in the sack on your brewery floor. The only reasonable solution I see to this problem is to have the maltsters undertake the measurements as part of their evaluation of each lot number. They take one measurement of pH (congress mash), why can't they take a couple more? Don't know but they can't.

The second part can be addressed (and has been on the prototype level). What I call the Gen I calculators commit a variety of errors with respect to how they handle alkalinity, how they treat malt buffering and how, ultimately they solve for pH. We now how to correct all these errors and so the calculation process no longer contributes those errors to the estimates. But even though a program no longer assumes that the titration curve of some malt is linear it will still give a bad answer if fed data for that malt which says it is. Thus thee problem becomes one of checking up on malt models.

So let's suppose that the ASBC want's to propose a new MOA (method of analysis) Malt 42A "Malt Titration Parameters". A committee would go off and review the literature and come up with a detailed method including details on how finely the malt sample would be ground, whether they would be dried, how much ground malt would be put into what sort of beaker placed in a bath at what temperature, how much water would be added, how many pH readings would be made and when and so on and so on.

A test malt would then be selected and titrated over and over again in the laboratory. The parameters would be extracted from the titration data and their means, standard deviation and coefficients of variation recorded. Error analyses would be done to propagate the uncertainties in the measured parameters through to a pH estimate based on those parameters. If the resultant uncertainty in the pH estimates were too large the method would be abandoned and another approach sought. If the uncertainties determined were small enough then a collaborative study in which samples of this same malt (or actually several malts, more likely) would be sent to several laboratories and they would measure the malt and report their findings back to the committee. If the interlaboratory variations were too large the method would be dropped but were they sufficiently small it would be accepted.

As ASBC has done this for lots of MOAs there are standard statistical procedures for carrying all this out and it is probably clear that a lot of work by a lot of people is required.
 
Hmm not trying to beat a dead horse here but I'm still not understanding. We can prove how accurate the software is by using at and taking the actual ph readings to compare. I do it every brew . Unless my meter is incorrect and I calibrate it before use what are we trying to figure out? In 55+ batches brunwater has never been off by .4. is the question specifically directed at people without meters trying to verify if it's correct?

I think the OP is suggesting that most people are making unintentional errors along the way and giving false validation to existing mash pH software. So, when you take your readings to validate your own water calculations, you might be using your meter incorrectly, or it isn't calibrated correctly, or any other number of variables that can go wrong, which ultimately results in your belief that your chosen calculator is correct when it is not. I dunno, I am just gonna default to what AJ and Martin say, drink my beer, and shut up.
 
I think the OP is suggesting that most people are making unintentional errors along the way and giving false validation to existing mash pH software. So, when you take your readings to validate your own water calculations, you might be using your meter incorrectly, or it isn't calibrated correctly, or any other number of variables that can go wrong, which ultimately results in your belief that your chosen calculator is correct when it is not. I dunno, I am just gonna default to what AJ and Martin say, drink my beer, and shut up.
Fair enough. I can confidently say the software I use is within .04 of the target and is verified each time using a decent (100$) meter and it's calibrated at each use. I've taken enough samples to feel it's accurate for tg homebrew scale. I guess the only way to know better if you were super obsessed with it would be some sort of lab. I guess for argument's sake one could say at the end of the day the only thing that really matters is when you actually measure your pH whether you're in the range or not. Even if you're making entry errors into your software and you still come out where you want to be it doesn't really make much of a difference. Cheers
 
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I think the OP is suggesting that most people are making unintentional errors along the way and giving false validation to existing mash pH software. So, when you take your readings to validate your own water calculations, you might be using your meter incorrectly, or it isn't calibrated correctly, or any other number of variables that can go wrong, which ultimately results in your belief that your chosen calculator is correct when it is not. I dunno, I am just gonna default to what AJ and Martin say, drink my beer, and shut up.

This goes hand in hand with my contention that if you are sampling before the 30 minute mark (at the earliest), you are getting a false reading. And since most recipes are for beers which reside on the light to low-mid darkness side of the SRM color scale fence, most of such false pH readings will be on the markedly low side, as for these beers the pH rises during the mash. The forum member who recently watched (and charted) his Blonde Ale mash as it progressed from pH 5.42 at the 15 minute sampling, to 5.57 at the end of the mash, to pH 5.63 by the end of lautering proved this. If he was shooting for 5.4 and measured 5.42 at the 15 minute mark he would have vindicated his software (and most of us would simply stop measuring at this juncture, being happy as larks that the software was correct). But in reality the software would in this case be way off, with a fair amount of additional acid being actually required, such that the mash stage terminate at a pH of 5.4. And if you do not do a mash out step to put an end to it, some minor level of saccharification will continue through lautering.
 
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To establish whether or not there actually can ever be any hope for statistical relevance in regard to any of the extant gen 1 mash pH assistant software solutions, I place a call to A.J. deLange for his gen 2 software solution to this, a hypothetical SMaSH:

A.J., given this hypothetical and simple SMaSH recipe case, how much 88% lactic acid is actually required to achieve an honest mash pH of 5.4 on a proton basis?

Case:
5 Kg. (11 lbs.) of Maris Otter, measured to have a DI_pH of 5.73 (as was recently done by member 'cire')
17 liters (4.5 gal.) of RO mash water with 50 ppm Ca++, zero Mg++ ppm, and zero alkalinity ppm

This will establish the gen 1 vs. gen 2 software baseline for validity only for the range of light colored brews. Similar standardized example/baseline test cases must then be established for (at a minimum) a mid-SRM recipe (say 15 SRM), a dark recipe (say 30 SRM), and a very dark recipe (say 60 SRM) standardized grist batches. Then all extant gen 1 software can be also compared with hard science for standardized test recipes spanning a range or relevant SRM colors. For the dark brews a standardized percentage of caramel/crystal and roast malts must also be established, as well as a standardized grist. For all of the "standardized" test cases I propose that the same grist weight and mash water conditions (Ca++ content and volume) should be retained as for this light brew test case. And I also propose that the very same 5.73 DI_pH Maris Otter base malt be the foundation for all of the standard grist by SRM color cases.

Then lastly and down the road a bit 70 ppm of alkalinity should be applied to all of these standardized SRM recipes, to test all of gen 1 softwares ability to properly handle added alkalinity.
 
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This goes hand in hand with my contention that if you are sampling before the 30-minute mark (at the earliest), you are getting a false reading.
Silver_Is_Money just a thought. But over a year ago after reading AJ's paper it was determined the benchmark for drawing cooled mash pH samples was at the 20 minute mark. Why the sudden shift who determined 30 minutes and how was this communicated to anyone?
 
Silver_Is_Money just a thought. But over a year ago after reading AJ's paper it was determined the benchmark for drawing cooled mash pH samples was at the 20 minute mark. Why the sudden shift who determined 30 minutes and how was this communicated to anyone?

Just yesterday (in another thread) A.J. agreed with 30 minutes, and then he further said that one might get him to buy into 25 minutes if they twist his arm.

I initially came up with 30 minutes due simply to the general acceptance that for most mashes the saccharification will be found to be mostly completed (as verified by the iodine/starch test) at the 30 minute juncture of the mash.

One problem here is that within the span of only a day or two the OP has started several threads all in essence asking a similar question, and for the rest of us that means reading each thread in detail in order to get the larger overall picture.
 
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I think we are all on the same page and have a standardized method of calculating ph. Silver is money and the op are the only people I've really seen questioning that. The standardized method is taking a ph reading and adjusting after 10 mins. Silver is money disagrees with this because he is the creator of Mme and if you follow the standardized way most have been using to check ph since it was a thing your readings will be off. I only did a quick test but the results were very similar to my beersmith results. Recommended too much acid.


Maybe the question should be. Which software programs work using the standardized method of checking/adjusting ph. My answer would be brunwater is the only one that's worked consistently well for me. Beersmith might be ok but you need to adjust the acid strength from 88% to 125% otherwise your actual reading will be quite low and below the acceptable range. Cheers
 
I think we are all on the same page and have a standardized method of calculating ph. Silver is money and the op are the only people I've really seen questioning that. The standardized method is taking a ph reading and adjusting after 10 mins. Silver is money disagrees with this because he is the creator of Mme and if you follow the standardized way most have been using to check ph since it was a thing your readings will be off. I only did a quick test but the results were very similar to my beersmith results. Recommended too much acid.

This poster has had a chip on his shoulder against any software other than Bru'n Water from the onset and should not be trusted, as he is clearly not attempting to be objective. He is essentially shilling for Bru'n Water, which to him is always correct (despite easy to verify serious flaws which would make a statement to that effect impossible for that software). And he is not above providing false data or statements (as I easily demonstrated on another thread) for MME and likely also for other software packages. This should be obvious to anyone who has been following his posts across various threads.
 
The standardized method is taking a ph reading and adjusting after 10 mins.
@Blazinlow86 put me in the camp of testing at 20 minutes into the mash. The same time it takes brewing water additions and mash wort pH to stabilize and reach equilibrium. With that said I also think attempts at making pH corrections to the mash after that point in time are useless. Pretty much like attempting to throw a Hail Mary pass in the last ditch effort to save the day.
 
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@Blazinlow86 put me in the camp of testing at 20 minutes into the mash. The same time it takes brewing water additions and mash wort pH to stabilze and reach equilibrium. With that said since I also think attempts at making pH corrections to the mash after that point in time are useless. Pretty much like attempting to throw a hail Mary pass in a last ditch effort to save the day.
Perfect do what works for you. i should add i also check mine thru out the mash i just start at 10mins. i generally dont have to add acid as its always very close to start with fwiw. im willing to bet if you gathered all the tutorials or whatever majority will say check the mash ph after 10 mins and adjust. that was more so my point. not everone. just the majority. doesnt make it right or wrong. just it seems the most standard. Cheers
 
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This poster has had a chip on his shoulder against any software other than Bru'n Water from the onset and should not be trusted, as he is clearly not attempting to be objective. He is essentially shilling for Bru'n Water, which to him is always correct (despite easy to verify serious flaws which would make a statement to that effect impossible for that software). And he is not above providing false data or statements (as I easily demonstrated on another thread) for MME and likely also for other software packages. This should be obvious to anyone who has been following his posts across various threads.

So to recap. i purchased beersmith 3 specifcally because i liked the water tools upgrades. the first brew i tried using the new tools turned out with a mash ph of much lower than the target. after doing some research it turned out that seemed to be happening for majority. hoping i was using the software incorrectly i creating a post asking if anyone HAD luck with the bs3 ph tool. after 1800 views unforunatly not one person chimed in to say it WAS working for them. most that replied said the same thing. its recommending double the amont required to reach there targets and they continued using brunwater. suspiciously one user names silver is money was very persistant that brunwater is incorrect and that bs3 is correct. eventually once said member posted that he indeed hadnt even used bs3 or brunwater for that matter it clicked. he was the author of another obscure program which uses the same method as bs3 to calculate and admitting bs3 as incorrect would also mean his software is incorrect. at that point i i made a new thread based on silver is moneys program mme so he could continue to debate his software and keep the bs3 ph tool thread on track. again said user probably typed 10000 word in a thread in his own words defending bs3 (that hes never tried). it was a yes or no question which he never answered.

the tread made on mme is basically the same as the bs3. nobody can confirm its worked for them or even uses it.


now there is this tread. all ive said is i thought that the ph measurement process is standard and didnt really understand what op was trying to figure out. ive had great luck using brunwater and i check my ph thru the process and have no reason to believe theres anything wrong with it. now silver is money claims im obviously a shill with a chip on my shoulder because i use brunwater with good results.

so a few questions for silver is money.

is anyone that makes the claims i do that they have had better luck with brunwater than bs3s ph tool a shill/incorrect or just me?

when did it become a FACT that brunwater doesnt work? if anyone disagrees are they incorrect?

you said i provided false data which you easily demonstrated was false. can you copy and paste just one instance of that as i think your getting your users confused

you say despite easy to verify serious flaws which would make a statement to that effect impossible for that software. when did this become fact ? seems strange that so many of us are clearly doing it wrong with good results dont you think?

what software do you believe is used/recommended the most?

do you think your know it all / my way or the highway attitude will help get you new users of your software?

you say "This poster has had a chip on his shoulder against any software other than Bru'n Water from the onset and should not be trusted, as he is clearly not attempting to be objective". would you trust someone who defended bs3 to death to have a valid opinion ?YOU HAVENT EVEN USED BS3 but its correct?

i think when you look at the facts its you thats suspect of everything you accuse me of being. clear as day . i have nothing to loose here. you MADE software that uses the same model as bs3 that nobody uses and have ever reason to argue to the death that its correct

i await your answers to these specific questions however fully expect you wont be able to answer then directly. it will be another 10000 word essay on some off topic thing with no answer to the specifc 6 questions asked. just like the bs3 thread. prove me right. please. cheers
 
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Ok folks, stick to technical discussions, and stop questioning the motives, character, etc. of other posters. If you can't follow the rules, this thread will get heavily moderated, and possibly locked. This will be the only warning.

doug293cz
HBT Moderator
 
Ok folks, stick to technical discussions, and stop questioning the motives, character, etc. of other posters. If you can't follow the rules, this thread will get heavily moderated, and possibly locked. This will be the only warning.

doug293cz
HBT Moderator


please just lock it now lol. cheers
 

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