One btu is the energy required to raise 1 lb of water 1 degree Fahrenheit. BTU ratings on burners and equipment are hourly.
Water that is at boiling has 180 btus in it, per lb. That means 20 gallons as accumulated about 120,000 btu. However, in brewing, you're not starting with cold, probably closer to 150 F. So, you'll be adding 62 btu per lb of wort, or just 10,350 btu. You'll probably need 6000 btu to keep it hot.
Once you're at boiling, it takes 1000 btu per lb of steam. If you want to boil off 15% in 1 hour, that's 3 gallons, or 25 lbs. So, 25000 btu.
The only thing left is to figure out the heat that won't get into the wort, which is probably about half. In other words, just double the boil needs and you're going to be in the ballpark.
Keeping wort at temperature: 6000 btu
Getting 15% boiloff per hour: 25000 btu
Double for heat loss around the kettle and it totals 62000 btu.
No harm in getting something bigger, but I wouldn't go much lower.