Is the craft beer craze going to cause a hops shortage?

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The most popular hops will always be in short supply....or rather you will pay a premium price for them.
 
i still don't understand the meaning of "craft brew" when i go into a BC liqoure store there is beer.... and specialty beer. But the specialty beer is ALWAYS there even tho they say its "small supply/small batch", In my eyes is just a marketing scheme to us hard core drinking fanatics to "try new stuff before its gone", And of-course we grab up the 6 pack of pumpkin beer and banana bread beer like rabid wolves and leave the generic 12 pack on the shelf next to it...Then 6 months later same beer is on sale for 30% off so they can get rid of it.
 
Maybe...:p

Ratz, I was too slow. I was trying to get a 'yes,' 'no,' 'maybe' lined up before someone else posted...
 
It's already happened in the past. I think it was '08? It takes a few years for the farms to catch up, but I doubt there will be another huge shortage.
 
There will only be a shortage if articles like this keep appearing and people begin hoarding.
Hey Guy, good luck with the hundred pounds of aging hops you rushed out to buy when you read about a shortage coming.
 
'Can anyone explain that first sentence?"

Small brewers are pretty much last in line. Big brewers and distributors place orders for literally tons of hops. If the supply is limited, a small brewer might not be able to reliably get 10lbs of a high demand hop.

There will certainly be no long term hop shortages. That is the benefit of a market economy. Short supply = rising prices = more people willing plant. With hops, there is some ramp time in that last step.
 
I think under normal conditions, supply is keeping up with demand, aside from maybe specialty or proprietary hops. However, that isn't stopping bad weather or crop blight from putting a temporary dent in a year's harvest.
 
billl said:
'Can anyone explain that first sentence?"

Small brewers are pretty much last in line. Big brewers and distributors place orders for literally tons of hops. If the supply is limited, a small brewer might not be able to reliably get 10lbs of a high demand hop.

There will certainly be no long term hop shortages. That is the benefit of a market economy. Short supply = rising prices = more people willing plant. With hops, there is some ramp time in that last step.
Click to expand...

No, I mean can anyone explain that first sentence that I quoted. The one that states "Panic buying by hipsters might be premature." It just seems out of place in the story, unless I'm missing something obvious...like that craft brewers are all hipsters or something...
 
billl said:
'Can anyone explain that first sentence?"

Small brewers are pretty much last in line. Big brewers and distributors place orders for literally tons of hops. If the supply is limited, a small brewer might not be able to reliably get 10lbs of a high demand hop.

There will certainly be no long term hop shortages. That is the benefit of a market economy. Short supply = rising prices = more people willing plant. With hops, there is some ramp time in that last step.
Click to expand...

+1 to This. Well-said.
 
john Mallet from Bells touches on this as somewhat of a cyclical event in a Beersmith podcast a while ago...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
billl said:
'Can anyone explain that first sentence?"

Small brewers are pretty much last in line. Big brewers and distributors place orders for literally tons of hops. If the supply is limited, a small brewer might not be able to reliably get 10lbs of a high demand hop.

There will certainly be no long term hop shortages. That is the benefit of a market economy. Short supply = rising prices = more people willing plant. With hops, there is some ramp time in that last step.
Click to expand...

At least the macro brewers and craft brewers won't be going after the same supply for the most part. Budweiser isn't exactly going to be buying up tons of Citra or Mosaic.

Granted, there isn't much stopping the Sam Adamses, Sierra Nevadas, Stones, etc. from buying up huge chunks of the specialty hops and screwing over Joe Blow Nanobrewer down the street.
 
As someone who is in the "mix" I'd say there is a very delicate balance in the hop markets right now. Some hops you literally can't get contracts until 2016/2017, which is a good and bad thing.

The good is that the growers know the demand and they can plant accordingly, keep up with demand. That being said the small guy can have a very difficult time getting the new "It" hop. Equinox is the "it" hop of the moment and its very difficult to get.
I am constantly getting calls from nano's who didn't realize getting Mosaic, Simcoe, Amarillo, Citra in any quantity was going to be so difficult. When you're not in teh business you thing everyone havs a beer with those hops in it I should be able to get them too. Not the case but if you plan accordingly then you'll be of. (sorry a bit off topic)

The bad: if there is any fluctuation in the amount of hops being harvest due to weather, disease or God forbid another fire in a hop storage warehouse then I think a shortage could come on very quickly for certain varieties.

I could talk for an hour (Like I did yesterday with 2 of my reps) about this but that just a little insight as to what we see here at Farmhouse.
 
geoffm33 said:
So long as we don't call them journalists, we're even. :mug:
Click to expand...

Calling that link an "article" is even a stretch...

I don't really see a problem with this from a hop growers point of view. They have been doing business with some of the bigger (and local mind you) breweries for years. Why shouldn't they have priority? Most even have a set area of the harvest that is theirs to ensure the "terroir" flavors are consistent. The farmers know where its going, when they want it. I'm sure the process is far easier for them. Especially shipping large quantities. A one-and-done type exchange.

And remember, Sam Adams saved over 100 breweries during the last shortage.
 
They also randomly send boxes of hard to get hops to new breweries. That's an awesome gesture.
 
I would think "natural disasters" will contribute more to a shortage than the "boom" of craft beer. Seems like the weather the last couple years, flooding, droughts, extended winters, etc can shortened growing seasons or completely take out farms. This would have more of an impact than higher sales.
 
Calichusetts said:
Calling that link an "article" is even a stretch...

I don't really see a problem with this from a hop growers point of view. They have been doing business with some of the bigger (and local mind you) breweries for years. Why shouldn't they have priority? Most even have a set area of the harvest that is theirs to ensure the "terroir" flavors are consistent. The farmers know where its going, when they want it. I'm sure the process is far easier for them. Especially shipping large quantities. A one-and-done type exchange.

And remember, Sam Adams saved over 100 breweries during the last shortage.
Click to expand...
For those who don't know (and I didn't, until I read Calichusetts' post and looked it up):
2008 hops shortage

In early 2008, amidst a worldwide shortage of hops—a key ingredient in beer—Boston Beer Company agreed to share 20,000 pounds of its hops, at cost, with craft brewers throughout the United States. In random drawings, the company selected 108 craft brewers to receive the 20,000 pounds of hops it could spare. This prevented many craft brewers from having to reformulate recipes or go out of business.[18]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Adams_(beer)
Click to expand...
 
Time for the homebrew peeps who live in states where hops grow well.. to become farmers! :ban:

I'd like to grow some here.... but they don't seem to really like the Texas gulf coast... at least talking to people down here who have tried to grow various hops.
 
With the increase in demand, many more people will look to get into the hop game. My friend down the street just started Hop farming this year. He moved into a house where a home brewed had lived and grown hops. So he inherited 24 Saaz plants. They then planted Cascade and Hallertau hops. The local brewery in town has already come out and want to buy the whole crop.
 
It's more of a matter of speculating crop futures than demand IMO. Hasn't the 2007 shortage caused enough new growth in the industry to meet the demands of the expands of the market. Obviously there are things that can not be accurately anticipated such as relative popularity of specific breeds, or "acts of god" such as that wild fire that nearly devastated Washington in 2008. The boom of craft and home brewers, IMO seems to be well anticipated. Over all I doubt there would be any shortage but for specific strains due to popularity is almost definite, as that is the nature of the market.


Sent from my iPhone using Home Brew
 
Rogue started their own hop farm to control their supply of hard to get hops for their beer. I think as a nano, not so big a deal, just tweak the recipe or release something new. Once you are distributing a recognized beer you are kinda stuck making it the same way.


Sent from my iPhone using Home Brew
 

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