Homebrewing popularity fading?

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Phunhog

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Well I have a very un-scientific way of determining this. I figure if the hobby is still growing HBT should be hammered soon with new members who received a homebrewing kit for Christmas. More importantly the "most people ever on HBT" record will be broken in the next few weeks since this is the best homebrewing site:mug: and it is a clearinghouse for information. FWIW the record was set 1/13/13 with 6,855 active users. My theory is that if the record isn't broken then there aren't as many "new" homebrewers.
 
Theoretically there should be new members here. Here and anywhere else with a home brewing forum. I don't remember how many sites I went to before I decided to make HBT my home.
 
Psycotte said:
I like a more slightly scientific way of looking at this. I just did an interesting google trend chart comparing the term "Homebrewing" versus "craft beer".

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=craft beer, Homebrewing&cmpt=q

Interesting that as craft beer is becoming more popular homebrewing has seen a slight decline.
Click to expand...

That probably isn't all that accurate either since most people soon learn that all searches on "homebrewing" leads to here they just start coming straight here and bypass the google middleman. People will always be searching craft beers though.

I've even gone so far to recommend to people looking into homebrewing to come straight here and not bother searching for it
 
MindenMan said:
Theoretically there should be new members here. Here and anywhere else with a home brewing forum. I don't remember how many sites I went to before I decided to make HBT my home.
Click to expand...

Took me about a month before I created my account with HBT. I found a forum that the all redundant questions led a person back to some FAQ page that was not completely clear. HBT was one of the ones where new members seemed to not get abused or ignored and appeared to be most active.

Edit: Trox and Psycotte are too fast.
 
That is highly keyword specific. Add "home brewing" and "home brew" and the numbers are consistently higher when compared to even craft beer. I think the best gauge of where homebrewing is at is the wait list at Ss Brewing Technologies for $175 brew bucket. 3000+ strong. How many people these days flop down $200 for a gadget when cheaper options exist? Being in the retail industry, I can honestly say not many; certainly not where the item isn't electronics related. So I would say demand is still good to great. That said, this is a hobby. As such people will jump in and jump out from time to time. When they jump in, I think you would see a spike of interest as they search for all of the latest developments in their hobby.
 
trboyden said:
That is highly keyword specific. Add "home brewing" and "home brew" and the numbers are consistently higher when compared to even craft beer. I think the best gauge of where homebrewing is at is the wait list at Ss Brewing Technologies for $175 brew bucket. 3000+ strong. How many people these days flop down $200 for a gadget when cheaper options exist? Being in the retail industry, I can honestly say not many; certainly not where the item isn't electronics related. So I would say demand is still good to great. That said, this is a hobby. As such people will jump in and jump out from time to time. When they jump in, I think you would see a spike of interest as they search for all of the latest developments in their hobby.
Click to expand...

Good catch trboyden! As an IT analyst I would add that the trend is steadily sideways on any of the home brew related terms while craft beer is markedly upwards. For homebrewing that is a good sign as well. A percentage of those just now becoming interested in craft beer will begin to cross over into homebrewing at some point. I like your SS brewbucket analogy. I once read a book on stock investing written by Peter Lynch who said one of the best ways to pick out an investment was to gauge the business of its retail store. SS Brewbucket is a good case in point. Personally I think homebrewing is growing and will get bigger which really means that for us homebrewers more options for equipment, homebrew shops, and the like become more readily accessible. When Bed, Bath and Beyond is selling homebrew equipment you have to stop and wonder...

:mug:
 
Apparently all of the links on the American Homebrewers Association website are broken. If I'm not mistaken, they've seen a steady increase in the number of memberships. That would be the best place to go to find out whether there is a decline in homebrewing or not, since they have their finger constantly on the pulse. They actually do scientific research, rather than just a quick survey of anecdotal evidence. As they say in statistics, the plural of anecdote is not data.
 
TheZymurgist said:
Apparently all of the links on the American Homebrewers Association website are broken. If I'm not mistaken, they've seen a steady increase in the number of memberships. That would be the best place to go to find out whether there is a decline in homebrewing or not, since they have their finger constantly on the pulse. They actually do scientific research, rather than just a quick survey of anecdotal evidence. As they say in statistics, the plural of anecdote is not data.
Click to expand...

http://www.brewersassociation.org/p...rewers-association-membership-surpasses-30000

It's a steady uptrend of growth for them.
 
I think the hobby is limited due to the tendency of society to want things fast and easy. I think many people can't be bothered or don't want to invest the time in making good homebrew. The same goes with cooking. More and more people don't or can't cook because they want to buy a meal fast and can't be bothered with the time needed to do it well at home. I work with people who buy apples precut in a little plastic bag. They are so "busy" they can't or won't buy a regular apple, cut it and put it in a ziplock to bring to work.
I think people that visit here regularly are dedicated but represent a small amount of the population. I say regularly because I wonder how many people get that Christmas brew kit, give it a try and then either get frustrated and quit or make a good batch but lose interest or won't invest the time. Think about some of the more common themes of those first time posters looking for help. It usually relates to not being patient and wanting fast results. Just my thoughts.
 
I consistently find articles that state homebrewing is growing.

Google news allows you to create your own categories. I created a public category "home brew beer". You can locate it and choose to add it to your Google news sectiions.

The search strings include:
home brewing beer, home brewing, homebrew, home brew beer, home brew competition, home brew entry, homebrew beer, homebrew guild, -coffee
 
I am a member, and I think the AHA does good work, and they certainly have scientific affiliates, but I wouldn't say their data goes much more beyond polling these days either. More so on the Brewers Association side. I have seen just as many posts from people not happy with them that won't be renewing their memberships. I would argue membership data from free resources, particular those associated with brewing supply websites such as Northern Brewer would be more telling of the state of the homebrewer industry. Data Mining web search data is most certainly a valid scientific research method. However you would need more than simple keyword search tools to get accurate data. Plus I would say it depends on what you are looking to get out of the data as well. In this case, all we are really concerned with is an interest trendline. For that purpose, and with an appropriate selection of keywords, the Google tool gets us close enough. For sales data, I would beg and bribe manufacturers and retailers for their sales data. That would be the primary data I would rely on for justifying bringing a new product to market. If the sales are down, forget it. But that doesn't seem to be the case recently.
 
dangerbrew said:
In the spirit of this thread, I thought I'd present this for consideration:

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1708005089/picobrew-zymatic-the-automatic-beer-brewing-applia

What are everyone's thoughts on this and homebrewing becoming less of a 'hands-on' art and more of a 'Keurig' in the future?

I have to admit, it slightly depresses me. But I still kind of want one just to mess around with. :cross:
Click to expand...

:off: There is a whole discussion of that appliance here: https://www.homebrewtalk.com/f235/picobrew-zymatic-434787/
 
trboyden said:
I am a member, and I think the AHA does good work, and they certainly have scientific affiliates, but I wouldn't say their data goes much more beyond polling these days either. More so on the Brewers Association side. I have seen just as many posts from people not happy with them that won't be renewing their memberships. I would argue membership data from free resources, particular those associated with brewing supply websites such as Northern Brewer would be more telling of the state of the homebrewer industry. Data Mining web search data is most certainly a valid scientific research method. However you would need more than simple keyword search tools to get accurate data. Plus I would say it depends on what you are looking to get out of the data as well. In this case, all we are really concerned with is an interest trendline. For that purpose, and with an appropriate selection of keywords, the Google tool gets us close enough. For sales data, I would beg and bribe manufacturers and retailers for their sales data. That would be the primary data I would rely on for justifying bringing a new product to market. If the sales are down, forget it. But that doesn't seem to be the case recently.
Click to expand...

Google trends has been used successfully to predict flu outbreaks faster than the CDC and with accuracy.

http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/#US

Using google trends to look at homebrewing is certainly valid so long as the right terms are aggregated. Besides, this is all in good fun.


:mug:
 
That is because the CDC relies on provider and insurer data. In anything but the most severe cases, your doctor can't do much for you when it comes to the flu, so most people don't go to the doctor or use insurance. You stay home and drink fluids. With that comes the search for home remedies to try an get over the flu quicker. That is how Google was able to compile their data, as well as data mining social media resources for keywords relating to the flu. When it comes to data mining, the one thing you can accurately measure is complaints. Because people love to complain!
 
I know at least in Michigan homebrewing is on the rise. All of the clubs see many new members at most if not all meetings and the events such as our state homebrew festival and competitions see more action each year.
 
My local HBS guy uses a simple metric: his sales. Beyond that he notes the number of kits he sells as with most of his customers the first time he sees them is when they buy a starter kit (or someone buys it for them and they come in for some more yeast or whatever). He noted the other day that this season sales of starter kits are down 'double digits' relative to last year.

He's also noted, and this is most interesting, a shift in interest from brewing to distilling. Even though this is highly illegal and enforced in the US he says it's often obvious that the stuff people are asking for isn't for brewing and that he has had many more requests like this this year than in recent past years.

My personal assessment is that we are near a peak. I'm not sure on which side of it.
 
smcdammitt said:
WTF is Craft beer compared to homebrewing?
Click to expand...

It seemed like a natural tie in. I would think that craft beer influence on homebrewing has a couple of effects.

  • exposes more people to different beer styles
  • gets people interested in where all of this type of beer is coming from
  • exposes them to festivals which are attended by brewers and homebrewers alike

Homebrewing started the craft beer industry (see Jim Koch). So as more craft beer becomes available it potentially does a couple of things. Decreases the amount of homebrewing because the need is no longer there with such a large selection available or it increases homebrewing because people become more educated and exposed to the ability to do it themselves to create quality beer at lower than craft pricepoints.

This was my thinking anyway. I'm sure it is very arguable.
 
Cider123 said:
I think the hobby is limited due to the tendency of society to want things fast and easy. I think many people can't be bothered or don't want to invest the time in making good homebrew. The same goes with cooking. More and more people don't or can't cook because they want to buy a meal fast and can't be bothered with the time needed to do it well at home. I work with people who buy apples precut in a little plastic bag. They are so "busy" they can't or won't buy a regular apple, cut it and put it in a ziplock to bring to work.
I think people that visit here regularly are dedicated but represent a small amount of the population. I say regularly because I wonder how many people get that Christmas brew kit, give it a try and then either get frustrated and quit or make a good batch but lose interest or won't invest the time. Think about some of the more common themes of those first time posters looking for help. It usually relates to not being patient and wanting fast results. Just my thoughts.
Click to expand...

Agreed. There are a lot of people I don't even share my hobbies with because they think I'm crazy to brew and cook.
 
ajdelange said:
My local HBS guy uses a simple metric: his sales. Beyond that he notes the number of kits he sells as with most of his customers the first time he sees them is when they buy a starter kit (or someone buys it for them and they come in for some more yeast or whatever). He noted the other day that this season sales of starter kits are down 'double digits' relative to last year...
Click to expand...

I would argue this largely depends on the region you're in and how good this particular LHBS is. Sales of a small brick and mortar shop are not good data to go on when talking about industry sales in general. That is because 90% of the business is done through the Internet or by brick and mortar outfits (like Northern Brewer) who successfully bridged the gap. Despite beer supply distributors being resistant to folks wanting to sell directly online, online is the best way to handle this type of distribution and maintain the volume to be successful. I am still waiting for someone to take advantage of Amazon's distribution system for brewing supplies, because that will be the next big breakthrough in price reduction and shipping speed.

Frankly the guys at my LHBS are dicks and I'll hold off on a purchase from them if I can wait. Usually local availability of advice is the biggest advantage of a brick and mortar shop, but I'd rather ask a question to the HBT crowd, than my LHBS.
 
You could argue that as homebrewing becomes more popular more quality homebrew websites will crop up meaning less new brewers will find their way here and/or choose to create a membership.

I know I personally use bertusbrewery.com as a reference nearly as often as I use HBT.
 
I think homebrewing is a PITA. Good results are not guaranteed. And the costs of ingredients seem to be skyrocketing..

Meanwhile the great choices of professionally made beers at the store are multiplying so fast that you could never get bored.

Also recessions seem to drive people to homebrew.
 
OK,
So we're talking about people buying Micro brewery beers instead of brewing their own, Craft beers?
Why would there be people on these sites that only buy Craft beers? To me it would be like not voting, and still flap your lips about what the elected official is doing wrong or right. Go ahead and read, but seal your lips.
 
grathan said:
I think homebrewing is a PITA. Good results are not guaranteed. And the costs of ingredients seem to be skyrocketing..

Meanwhile the great choices of professionally made beers at the store are multiplying so fast that you could never get bored.

Also recessions seem to drive people to homebrew.
Click to expand...

I find the over abundance of craft brews is wanting me to brew more. I'll try a beer that is frikkin expensive or seasoanl (Pliny, sculpin, Red Chair NWPA, etc.) and decide I'd rather brew it than buy it. Of course, cloning takes several attempts with tinkering with water, hops, yeast, etc, so I end up brewing them more and more.

It's a vicious cycle. :D
 
trboyden said:
I would argue this largely depends on the region you're in and how good this particular LHBS is.
Click to expand...
Agreed. This is an excellent store and is in a 'recession proof' region (near DC).

trboyden said:
Sales of a small brick and mortar shop are not good data to go on when talking about industry sales in general.
Click to expand...
They can be a very good indicator indeed if, as you note, the shop is a good one in which case customers go to it rather than to the on-line outfits because
1) They can get good advice there
2) They can get it the same day
3) They can get their brewing materials the same day
4) They can get comparable or only slightly increased prices as they only pay for shipping once (that is from the supplier to the LHBS).
5) They have an interest in keeping a local resource in business.

The sample size of 1 is definitely a problem in trying to make a global assessment, however.
 
Phunhog said:
Well I have a very un-scientific way of determining this. I figure if the hobby is still growing HBT should be hammered soon with new members who received a homebrewing kit for Christmas. More importantly the "most people ever on HBT" record will be broken in the next few weeks since this is the best homebrewing site:mug: and it is a clearinghouse for information. FWIW the record was set 1/13/13 with 6,855 active users. My theory is that if the record isn't broken then there aren't as many "new" homebrewers.
Click to expand...

If the record number of people on HBT happened early this year, how does that indicate a decline? If that were from a few years ago, and the numbers were significantly less now, that would be some indication.

I'm seeing quite the opposite locally. I can think of several people that I know personally who have entered the hobby in the past year and even more who have expressed a desire to start. We started a monthly tasting at our home brewer meetings about 6 months ago and the numbers there have been steadily increasing to the point that we might even have to become "organized".
 
As someone who shares the same geographical area as AJ, I can say without reservation that our area is one of the more mature areas of the country when it comes to amateur brewing. The Maryland/DC/Virginia Metro is both highly transient and highly technical. We experienced explosive growth in the hobby during the late eighties through the nineties with a drop off in enthusiasm at the turn of the century. If one surveys the authors who wrote articles for Brewing Techniques, one will find that our area is well represented. BYO's Mr. Wizard is originally from our area.

I believe that what we are seeing in our area is the natural progression from all-grain brewing and wine making to distillation. After all, whiskey is little more than distilled unhopped ale, and brandy is little more than distilled wine. While home distillation is definitely illegal, the number of people who are engaged in the hobby is approaching a critical mass where congress will be forced to address the restriction. The same thing happened with wine and beer. The hurdle with distilled spirits is that they are huge revenue source for the government. Another problem with the legalization of home distillation it is that distillation is significantly more dangerous than brewing or wine making. Still explosions are common enough that I sure as heck would not want an unregulated still operating next door to my house if I lived in a high density suburban or urban area.
 
Wow, holy revival of an old thread Batman. LOL. I am just teasing. I would guess as the younger generation, with their I want it now and don't want to work for it, mentality takes more of the market share and us old guys, well me for one, fade away in the sunset the numbers are going to swing. I just got into this a couple of years ago and love it. I enjoy doing stuff on my own, DIY type stuff, even when it doesn't work out all that well. I also don't mind the extra cost involved, so that is a plus. To me, a good day is spending the better part of it making a batch of beer, drinking homemade beer, cleaning up after, and continuing to drink my beer until it is time to either fall asleep or pass out. LOL. Usually the latter before the first. Either way, I think the younger generation just isn't into doing it themselves and would rather buy it and spend the time on the stupid computer. Oh wait, that's where I am now. Never mind that part. LOL.
 
I eschew thread proliferation :)

The plot I linked above has an overlaying cyclic nature that centers on Christmas - probably Mister Beer sales or equivalent bucket-based home brewing starter kits. In any case the general home brewing interest decline from peak clearly started in 2012.

Then there's this curve comparison of craft vs home brew as shown earlier in this thread. Roughly the beginning of 2010, craft beer interest started building quickly, leaving home brewing in the comparative dust. It isn't clear that there is a relationship between the two, however...
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=craft beer,Homebrewing
Cheers!
 
day_trippr said:
Found this thread, interesting that even back in 2013 folks saw the fall coming. And here it is as illustrated by Google Trends:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2004-10-16 2023-11-16&geo=US&q=Home brewing&hl=en
From its peak, search has dropped ~85%


Cheers!
Click to expand...

If you change your term to "homebrew", the result is a peak in 2009 and then a slow drop that stabilizes at basically flat from 2004. But "homebrewing" is a steady drop since 2004. However, "how to brew" is a steady rise since 2004. I think there's a lot of noise in the data.
 
"homebrewing popularity fading?" - no. at least not in my house. lol.

interesting trend. for me its hard cause when i started brewing in the 80's it was so fringe. so few shops and suppliers. then when the internet made it easier and linked me up with so many homebrewers i assumed it was exploding compared to what i knew and saw locally. i only heard it was fading from reading whats on the these boards. for me personally the interest is not fading if anything with the advent of newer brewing technologies its just the opposite.

i feel at least for me that some of the things i do now (like temp control for example) makes it easier to make better beer so the interest never ends for me. as long as i am able to make delicious beer with not that much effort i will continue to brew.

i agree theres a lot going on in that graph.
thanks for posting
 
Nice catch, @day_trippr. Interesting to see that someone saw the writing on the wall 10 years ago. It's not just a pandemic or post-pandemic slump, though the popularity no doubt took an additional hit in recent years.

I suppose the salad days of home brewing were circa 2010. I started brewing in 2012 and remember stopping in to MW for my first set of gear and an extract kit. They were having some sort of promotional event, and the place was packed. They had maybe a dozen employees on hand, including 2 seated at a table where customers could ask questions. They even had a stack of employment applications and were seeking new retail workers.

Amazing what difference a decade brings.
 
1700169077254.png
 

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