Weather

[jhoneycutt]

Hey weather channel.com, when you told me zero percent chance of rain till after midnight you were just kidding weren't you. Not being able to see the road at 10mph ain't funny, lets think about the jokes we tell from now on ok

 

[Kittyfeet]

This is why I don't believe in weathermen. They're as reliable as Ms Cleo.

 

[Zuljin]

And every forecast is the end of times. Brutal heat wave scorching the nation. That's called summer. Deep arctic freeze. Not even close. Torrential rainfall bringing flash floods. Drizzle.

But bright and clear all week? You will forget what the sun looks like.

 

[jhoneycutt]

I believe the best 2 would be 1992 they predicted a blizzard and we got barely worth calling flurries, 1993 they predicted flurries we got the worst blizzard of my lifetime thus far.

 

[DrunkleJon]

I wish I could get away with being wrong as often as they are and still have a job. Then again in IT most of my job is trial and error anyway.

I do loathe the fact that weather.com and accuweather both have different rain chance percentages as well as accumulation amounts and I really do not like it when I take the motorcycle to work and have to ride home in the rain without my rain gear. I really need to get saddlebags.

 

[Zuljin]

I wish I could get away with being wrong as often as they are and still have a job. Then again in IT most of my job is trial and error anyway.

I do loathe the fact that weather.com and accuweather both have different rain chance percentages as well as accumulation amounts and I really do not like it when I take the motorcycle to work and have to ride home in the rain without my rain gear. I really need to get saddlebags.

Whoa! An IT guy just admitted to that? Don't let the others hear you.

We were having "challenges" getting field values to match the HMI. I said, "Lets press this button and see what happens."

And yeah. But really all that bothers me is having to turn tight or stop short when it's wet.

 

[jhoneycutt]

All that really bothers me is not being able to trust the "expert" and thus not be able to plan even a few hours in advance for much of anything.

 

[BamaProud]

Guys, the Weather Channel is in the entertainment business, they do not actually predicting the weather. Those pretty gals weren't hired for their scientific achievements. Their "forecasts" are pure raw weather model data output. Their Hurricane forecasts are exactly what NOAA is forecasting.

The "Weather" Channel is to forecasting weather as the "History" Channel is to accurately depicting history. ...And don't even get me started on the "Discovery"(science) channel...they recently did documentaries on Megalodon ...suggesting it still exists, along with Mermaids.

If you want entertainment (the pretty girls ar nice too), by all means, watch. If you want an actual weather forecast by someone who actually puts a little effort into(and knows how to) improve model guidance I suggest sticking with the original source of all weather data. The Agency your tax dollars fund.

 

[DrNecropolis]

Was checking forecast one morning before work.. they were talking about this massive rainstorm in Somewhereelseville, AW and the camera man zoomed in on this "well endowed" beautiful lady, in a white shirt, jogging towards her car for a good 10 seconds..

They might just regurgitate raw data, but they have top notch camera men!

 

[jhoneycutt]

And now we've had 7.2 degrees a couple of mornings with crystal clear skies this week. This morning however its mid 60s and storming... I'll never get over this d*mned cold.

 

[kh54s10]

Not about weathermen but, Sub zero - snow - almost 50 - rain - teens - snow - almost 50 again and thunderstorms????? What gives?

 

[Beernik]

We had end of January type weather (0F - 20F) for most of December. Now that it is January, we are having early March like weather (41F yesterday and today).

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

High of 71 today... May hit 80 on Tuesday...

 

[TheZymurgist]

I should have been a meteorologist. There's no other job where you can get paid so much to work so little and have absolutely zero accountability. In my line of work, if I'm wrong, I get sued, and lose my license.

 

[passedpawn]

80 here right now. I'm loving it, after being in NYC last week with single digit temps.

I love it when they say 50% chance of rain. 50% - that's a coin flip, right? That's not science!

 

[Brewsncrabs]

There's only two jobs in the world you can get paid to be wrong. Weathermen and referees!

 

[bigjohnmilford]

There's only two jobs in the world you can get paid to be wrong. Weathermen and referees!

Don't forget about lawyers.

 

[BamaProud]

I love it when they say 50% chance of rain. 50% - that's a coin flip, right? That's not science!

No, that is not what that means.

In a nutshell it is a calculation of coverage of precipitation over a pre-defined area times confidence. So your simplified "coin flip" scenario is only valid when there is exactly 50% coverage of precipitation and the forecaster is 100% confident. Neither rarely happens. Meteorology is not an exact science...there is probably still far more we still don't know about how the atmosphere works than we understand.


FAQ from the NWS:

What does this "40 percent" mean? ...will it rain 40 percent of of the time? ...will it rain over 40 percent of the area?

The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point you select in the area.

How do forecasters arrive at this value?

Mathematically, PoP is defined as follows:
PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it occurs at all.

So... in the case of the forecast above, if the forecaster knows precipitation is sure to occur ( confidence is 100% ), he/she is expressing how much of the area will receive measurable rain. ( PoP = "C" x "A" or "1" times ".4" which equals .4 or 40%.)

But, most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur, and expects that, if it does occur, it will produce measurable rain over about 80 percent of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. ( PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%. )

In either event, the correct way to interpret the forecast is: there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop

...so now you know.

By the way, Doctors and lawyers dogcatchers policemen...no one is perfect. Some jobs allow for or require educated guesses, and informed decisions.

 

[day_trippr]

^Fun at parties...

Cheers!

 

[passedpawn]

No, that is not what that means.

Yea, I was just joking. Get it?

 

[BamaProud]

In my best Tommy Lee Jones Impression...No ma'am, We here at the Feds we do not have a sense of humor we're aware of.