The statistics and data are evidence of the growth, while the posts in the thread appear to be local and based on perceptions that may or may not be reality. I'm not sure how local perspectives can outweigh real proven data....
Well, they can't, of course.
But many/most/all new ideas and theories start with observing something that is an unexpected or different pattern. So if you see craft taking a dive where you are, it makes you wonder if that's a trend that is common across the country.
I started a thread a few months back asking if it seemed that a lot of home brewers were returning to home brewing after taking off time. It seemed, to me, that there was a significant increase in posts by such members here. I wondered if it looked the same to others here. My impressions were surely anecdotal, as I don't look in every forum and thread here on HBT, but in my limited orbits, I'd seen what appeared to be a significant pickup.
What I had for responses was a lot of individualistic and anecdotal information. Things like "I had kids, had to quit brewing for a while, now I'm back." Well, unless a lot of home brewers suddenly were having kids and bowing out, then returning, that's just an individual circumstance. Same with others who said things like "I moved overseas, then returned," or "I went back to school and had little time, but I graduated and...."
But not a lot of "yeah, I've noticed an increase" or "no, I haven't seen that."
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I think what you're pointing out more than anything is when people see local and anecdotal evidence and then extrapolate from that to grander trends, which isn't very defensible. At least, not without data.
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One cool thing that came out of that thread, for me, was someone who said that home brewing increases in a recession, and since the great recession receded....less need to brew beer. I thought that made sense, and it might well be a related cause of the growth of the craft beer industry. As more people have jobs, they can eschew (God, I love that word) brewing their own beer and simply buy it from craft breweries.
As most of the economic indicators now suggest we're heading into another recession, if that happens it'll be interesting to see if the craft beer industry stalls, and home brewing increases.