bergen69 said:I think it went to guitars for a bit. It never goes to the most important subject...Ginger or Mary Ann?
Well, yes and no.fair enough... but then the chances of winning leave the realm of statistics and enters the world of calculus and limits ->100%, but never quite getting there
got it
Haha. Awesome. My boss insists you can make booze with more than 100% alcohol. When asked how that is possible, he just says that's what distilling does.
And I'm going to quit.... maybe... OCD can be a ******* sometimes. (Except when it's fun. Or !both! ... sigh ... Apologies in advance...)
Well, yes and no.
Probability of p occurring in n tries =
1 - probability of p not occurring in n tries =
1 - (1 - p)^n
That's the absolute and complete answer and pure answer.
For a small n that's easy to calculate. But for actual number crunching with large n, it is sometimes easier to use:
1 - (1 - p)^n = n*p - (n(n-1)/2)*p^2 + (n 3)*p^3 - ....
Those terms get exponentially smaller and can eventually be ignored. If p is small compared to n then you can assume the probability is n*p. ***BUT ONLY IF p IS SMALL COMPARED TO N***. Otherwise you have to do the second and maybe third term as well.
Example: If p = 1/6,523 and n = 27, then P = 1 - (6,522/6,523)^27. Well, that's a ******* for floating points. But if I look at the second term of the series, I see that 27*26/3 must be *really* small compared to (1/6,523)^2 so I can assume that
P ~= n*p = 27/6,523. (but its actually a *teeny* teeny *teeny* bit less. n*p is always a little too big.)
That's safe. And *very* easy.
If p = 1/100 and n = 27 then P = 1 - (99/100)^27 is still a ***** to calculate. In the second term n(n-1)/2 is 26*27/2 and p^2 is 1/100*100. This terms are no longer insignificant. We must include them. But in the third term (n 3) = 25*26*27/6 and p^3 is 1/100^3. Those are insignificant (almost; the fourth term 24*25*26*27/2*3*4*5 compared to 1/100^4 is definately insignificant) So
P ~= 27/100 - 13*27/10,000.
(or if you're picky P ~= 27/100 - 13*27/10,000 + 25*13*9/1,000,000)
That's safe. But not so easy. But easier than 1 - (99/100)^27.
But when p is 1/4 and n is 6. Well .... P = 1 - (3/4)^6 = 1 - 729/4,096 = 3,267/4,096 is *much* easy and much more accurate than any estimate of:
P ~= 6*1/4 = 1.5 WRONG!!!
P ~= 1.5 - (6*5/2)*(1/4)^2 = 1.5 - 15/16 = 9/16 56.25%. Still wrong!
P ~= 9/16 + (6*5*4/1*2*3)*(1/4)^3 = 9/16 + 20/64 = 56/64 = 87.5%. Not so wrong.
P ~= 56/64 - (6*5*4*3/1*2*3*4)*(1/4)^4 = 56/64 - 15/256 = 209/256 ~= 81.64% and as 15/256 *finally* is small enough to ignore so I won't do the final two terms.
Oh christ. Open a new thread and talk about your math there man.
russrob81 said:"90% of football is half mental"
John Madden
bergen69 said:I think it went to guitars for a bit. It never goes to the most important subject...Ginger or Mary Ann?
bleme said:Are we talking one night stand or long term relationship?
bleme said:Are we talking one night stand or long term relationship?
mysteryshrimp said:The last style on that page is "free beer: Unanimously regarded as the world's finest style, especially when generously shared with friends. Unless it's Michelob Ultra."
I brought 12 Belgian Dark Strongs to a party, made it clear that they were community property. I brought 10 back. I am never doing that again.
pdxant said:Obviously, I wasn't invited.
Im 100% 50/50 on the matter.
On another note...I got the kids the Gillian's island dvd's...maybe because I'm older now...but I might be into ginger more now!
What are the odds on that?
This past Easter, I was at a family gathering and someone's uncle was there and he found out that I homebrew also, and he had me try his stout. It was tasty, but my family, being the mexicans they (we) are only like bud light, bud light lime, corona, etc. One of my uncle tried that guys stout and said to him "Oh wow, that tastes just like Sam Adams" I started laughing because I knew he meant it as a compliment, because to him that's probably the top of the line beer, but the guy's face was that of a mortified man, which made me laugh even harder.
Duffman870727 said:So I convinced my dad to set up a keg system at our bar downstairs on the basis that he buys the equipment, and I'll buy the ingredients and do the brewing for it. He comes home with the goods after a trip to the states and is showing it to me and my mom. My mom seems confused as to why he got all that so we're explaining it's for beer.
Then she says this little gem: "So what do you do, open up a bunch of bottles and pour them in?" Ohhh we were howling!
ladodger34 said:Madden may have said that, but it is really a Yogi Berra quote..
"Baseball is ninety percent mental and the other half is physical."
If it's Gillian's Island, gingers makes sense... but if that Duchovny guy shows up, I'm out.
LOL. How rude and understandable! I think I'd have done the same thing... though at the big family party I brought mine to I kept my smile and nod face on. ("This stout is really... stouty")
Jeanie!
http://chartsbin.com/view/1156
Since Americans have a higher fat intake, on average, than Germans... their beer must follow suit.
"We" have had a discussion on probability... how about logic?
malweth said:http://chartsbin.com/view/1156
Since Americans have a higher fat intake, on average, than Germans... their beer must follow suit.
"We" have had a discussion on probability... how about logic?
My neighbor saw me brewing yesterday
Neighbor: You making moonshine?
Me: Nope, making some beer.
Neighbor: Wow, sounds like some good ol' Duke's of Hazard. Don't get caught.
I hear kind of comment all the time when i brew outside
I brewed a hefe this Saturday and had one couple walk by and say I shouldn't be cooking meth on my driveway and a lady drive by slowly and take a picture with her phone. I was fully expecting the cops to show up but they never did.
MustBeZ said:I brewed a hefe this Saturday and had one couple walk by and say I shouldn't be cooking meth on my driveway and a lady drive by slowly and take a picture with her phone. I was fully expecting the cops to show up but they never did.
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