Funny things you've overheard about beer

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CreamyGoodness said:
I have gotten the question "do you need a still for that?"

I think a lot of folks arent entirely sure what distillation or a still is. I dont mind an earnest question from a person who just doesnt know.
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It's a legit question. I just find it funny.
 
454k30 said:
Heard at the Ruddy Duck "Europeans don't drink beer like Americans. They sip and enjoy every nuance; and only have one beer a day".
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They should come drink with some Finns. They probably wouldn't be able to stand after an hour or two.
 
>>Haha. Awesome. My boss insists you can make booze with more than 100% alcohol. When asked how that is possible, he just says that's what distilling does.

Heh, heh. Okay detour:

I still get a chuckle from the Simpson Episode where Mr. Burns organizes a company baseball team and he hires a hypnotist who instructs them "When you awake you will give one hundred and ten percent" and the team all in a hypnotized drone respond "That's impossible. No-one can give more than 100%. By definition that is the most anyone can give."

Further derail:
Years ago there was a fast food promotional lottery. I noticed there was a listing on the tickets one's odds of winning each prize based on the number of tickets. e.g. Odds of winning the $1,000,000 1 ticket 1 in 2.7 billion; 2 tickets 1 in 1.35 billion; etc. And I noticed that they were merely mulitplying the single odds by the number of tickets. Hence the odds of winning a free hamburger with one ticket was 1 in 6; with 2 tickets-- 1 in 3; with 3 tickets 1 in 2; with 4 tickets 2 in 3; and with 6 tickets 1 in 1. I chuckled and noticed the most common prize was a free drink with the odds of 1 in 4. The listed odds were: 1 ticket-- 1 in 4; 2 tickets-- 1 in 2; 3 tickets-- 3 in 4; 4 tickets-- 1 in 1; 6 tickets-- greater than 1 in 1.

Yes, if you bought 6 tickets your odds of winning a free drink are "greater than 1 in 1".
 
woozy said:
>>Haha. Awesome. My boss insists you can make booze with more than 100% alcohol. When asked how that is possible, he just says that's what distilling does.

Heh, heh. Okay detour:

I still get a chuckle from the Simpson Episode where Mr. Burns organizes a company baseball team and he hires a hypnotist who instructs them "When you awake you will give one hundred and ten percent" and the team all in a hypnotized drone respond "That's impossible. No-one can give more than 100%. By definition that is the most anyone can give."

Further derail:
Years ago there was a fast food promotional lottery. I noticed there was a listing on the tickets one's odds of winning each prize based on the number of tickets. e.g. Odds of winning the $1,000,000 1 ticket 1 in 2.7 billion; 2 tickets 1 in 1.35 billion; etc. And I noticed that they were merely mulitplying the single odds by the number of tickets. Hence the odds of winning a free hamburger with one ticket was 1 in 6; with 2 tickets-- 1 in 3; with 3 tickets 1 in 2; with 4 tickets 2 in 3; and with 6 tickets 1 in 1. I chuckled and noticed the most common prize was a free drink with the odds of 1 in 4. The listed odds were: 1 ticket-- 1 in 4; 2 tickets-- 1 in 2; 3 tickets-- 3 in 4; 4 tickets-- 1 in 1; 6 tickets-- greater than 1 in 1.

Yes, if you bought 6 tickets your odds of winning a free drink are "greater than 1 in 1".
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it means your chances are that you'll win 2 drinks in those 6 tickets
 
woozy said:
>>Haha. Awesome. My boss insists you can make booze with more than 100% alcohol. When asked how that is possible, he just says that's what distilling does.

Heh, heh. Okay detour:

I still get a chuckle from the Simpson Episode where Mr. Burns organizes a company baseball team and he hires a hypnotist who instructs them "When you awake you will give one hundred and ten percent" and the team all in a hypnotized drone respond "That's impossible. No-one can give more than 100%. By definition that is the most anyone can give."

Further derail:
Years ago there was a fast food promotional lottery. I noticed there was a listing on the tickets one's odds of winning each prize based on the number of tickets. e.g. Odds of winning the $1,000,000 1 ticket 1 in 2.7 billion; 2 tickets 1 in 1.35 billion; etc. And I noticed that they were merely mulitplying the single odds by the number of tickets. Hence the odds of winning a free hamburger with one ticket was 1 in 6; with 2 tickets-- 1 in 3; with 3 tickets 1 in 2; with 4 tickets 2 in 3; and with 6 tickets 1 in 1. I chuckled and noticed the most common prize was a free drink with the odds of 1 in 4. The listed odds were: 1 ticket-- 1 in 4; 2 tickets-- 1 in 2; 3 tickets-- 3 in 4; 4 tickets-- 1 in 1; 6 tickets-- greater than 1 in 1.

Yes, if you bought 6 tickets your odds of winning a free drink are "greater than 1 in 1".
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I barely slid through Stat in college, but I don't think that's how it works . . . :drunk:
 
>>it means your chances are that you'll win 2 drinks in those 6 tickets

It's likely but it's not inevetible. It's always possible that you'll have 6 dud tickets and not win anything so your odds can't ever be 100%

It's reasonable and understandable to assume that if your odds with 1 ticket is x, then your odds with n tickets will be n * x. (Although it turns out that isn't at all how probability works but it's reasonable to expect that most people will make that mistake).

But once you start dealing with large probabilities like 1 in 4 or 1 in 6 and you realize "gosh, that means I *have* to win if I have 6 tickets" something should tick off in your brain that *something* isn't right. And getting things like 150% probability should *really* tick you off that something is wrong.

Hint: Flipping a coin has a 1 in 2 chance of landing heads. By the above logic flipping a coin twice will have a 2 in 2 chance of landing heads. Hence it is *impossible* to flip a coin tails two times in a row.

>>I barely slid through Stat in college, but I don't think that's how it works . . .

It's definately not how it works.

Here's a hint: A guy has a 2/3 chance of making a basket. So if he shoots twice he has a 4/3 (greater than 100%) chance of making a basket. Well, that *can't* be right. He *could* miss both times. It's unlikely but he *could* miss both times.

Each time he shoots there are three possible outcomes: two in which he makes it and one in which he doesn't. So if he shoots twice there are nine possible outcomes. 4 in which he makes it each time. 2 in which he makes it the first time but not the second. 2 in which he makes it the second but not the first. And 1 in which he fails both times.

So the actual odds are 4/9 that he makes it both times; 8/9 that he makes it at least once; and 1/9 that he fails both times.

The odds of winning at least one drink are (who cares): 1 ticket-- 1 in 4. 2 tickets-- 7/16 (*less* than 1/2; but not much less); 3 tickets --37/64; 4 tickets-- 175/256; 6 tickets-- 3367/4096.

(With six tickets there are 4096 possible outcomes. In 729 you don't win any drinks. In 1,458 of them you win one drink. In 1,215 of them you win 2 drinks. In 540 of them you win 3 drinks. In 135 of them you win four drinks. In 18 of the you win 5 drinks. And in 1 of them you win 6 drinks.)

I think I *did* have 6 tickets and didn't win anything but that could be my memory making a good story. My table companion suggested that if someone did have six tickets and didn't win maybe said person could sue because the tickets said he *would* win.
 
let's say you get a cookie every time you make a basket, you're a crappy basketball player because your odds of making a basket are 1 in 4 and we are giving you 6 shots

odds are GREATER THAN EVEN that you'll get 1 cookie

definitely how it works

so the odds aren't the chances of each shot, it's that you're going to make at least one basket, given 6 shots

plus your mistake is thinking that EVEN ODDS or 1 to 1 odds is 100%, when the percentage chance of each outcome is 50%

it's 1 to 1 odds that a coin flip will come up heads
 
GrogNerd said:
let's say you get a cookie every time you make a basket, you're a crappy basketball player because your odds of making a basket are 1 in 4 and we are giving you 6 shots

odds are GREATER THAN EVEN that you'll get 1 cookie

definitely how it works

so the odds aren't the chances of each shot, it's that you're going to make at least one basket, given 6 shots
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1 in 1 odds means 100% certainty. It *has* to happen. Even odds, 50%, as likely as not is 1 in 2.

Yes, the odds *are* better than 50% that you will get a cookie. The odds are actually 82% that you will get a cookie. That is your odds are actually 8 in 10 which is pretty damned high. But it is *not* 100% it is not 1-1. And it is certainly not "greater than 1-1" which would mean better than 100% which isn't possible.

(Actually the odds of getting a cookie are exactly 2367 in 4096 or 82.2021484375%)
 
1 TO 1 (50%) is not 1 IN 1 (100%)
2 to 1 (66.66666666%) is not 1 in 2 (50%)
3 to 1 (75%) is not 1 in 3 (66.666666666%)

no, you can't have 3 in 1, but you CAN HAVE 3 to 1

you can have greater than 1 TO 1 odds, but not more than 1 IN 1. there's a difference

1 chance heads TO 1 chance tails, each has 1 to 1 or even odds, 50% chance.
 
talking about "damning with faint praise", I gave a bottle of my first brew (English brown) to a coworker....and he came back a week later and said "I tasted your beer and it was good". I assume the sink "tasted" some of it too. I fear that the recent tv commercial showing the dude with sausages and kraut in his carboys isn't setting the stage for acceptance.
 
GrogNerd said:
1 TO 1 (50%) is not 1 IN 1 (100%)
2 to 1 (66.66666666%) is not 1 in 2 (50%)
3 to 1 (75%) is not 1 in 3 (66.666666666%)

yes, you can't have 3 in 1, but you CAN HAVE 3 to 1

you can have greater than 1 TO 1 odds, but not more than 1 IN 1. there's a difference

1 chance heads TO 1 chance tails, each has 1 to 1 or even odds, 50% chance.
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.

1125759003_3580.jpg
 
woozy said:
1 in 1 odds means 100% certainty. It *has* to happen. Even odds, 50%, as likely as not is 1 in 2.

Yes, the odds *are* better than 50% that you will get a cookie. The odds are actually 82% that you will get a cookie. That is your odds are actually 8 in 10 which is pretty damned high. But it is *not* 100% it is not 1-1. And it is certainly not "greater than 1-1" which would mean better than 100% which isn't possible.

(Actually the odds of getting a cookie are exactly 2367 in 4096 or 82.2021484375%)
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WHAT I AM SAYING

>50% is greater than even
82% is greater than 1 to 1, 50%

8 in 10 is 4 to 1, get it?
 
First off, I admit I was once the ****** that went to the Budweiser factory and did tastings of their most common beers. I remember pairing Bud Light with cheeses and thinking that Bud Light Lime (It hadn't even been released yet) was "Amazing!".

With that said... on more than one occasion I have witnessed a person walk into a brewery and ask "What do you have that's similar to Bud Light?". In one such occasion, the bartender actually pointed to the faucet while stating it was the closest things. Cheers to him, haha.
 
HomebrewNate said:
First off, I admit I was once the ****** that went to the Budweiser factory and did tastings of their most common beers. I remember pairing Bud Light with cheeses and thinking that Bud Light Lime (It hadn't even been released yet) was "Amazing!".

With that said... on more than one occasion I have witnessed a person walk into a brewery and ask "What do you have that's similar to Bud Light?". In one such occasion, the bartender actually pointed to the faucet while stating it was the closest things. Cheers to him, haha.
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That's actually... horrendous ********* behavior, honestly.
 
Arrgh.

I know I should quit.

Consider it with 2 tickets. The odds of a drink with 1 tickets is 1 in 4. So one would think the odds with 2 tickets is 2 in 4 or 1 in 2; even money.

But it isn't. You have a 1 - 4 chance of winning on the first ticket and a 1 - 4 chance of winning on the second ticket. But these two *aren't* completely separate events (you could win a drink on both tickets) so you can't add them together as though the were separate. The result will be slightly *less* then 2 in 4.

This error is compounded with 6 tries. The answer isn't 1-4 added 6 times to get "3 out of 2" or 150% odds. You have to remove the multiple drinks which have been included more than once. The actual answer comes out to 82%.

The best way to do it is to figure out the odds of *not* winning every single time and subtract from 1.

The odds of *not* winning a drink with 1 ticket is 3/4.
The odds of *not* winning a drink with 2 tickets is 3/4* 3/4 = 9/16
The odds of *not* winning a drink with 3 tickets is 27/64.
The odds of *not* winning a drink with 4 tickets is 81/256. (It *is* possible!)
The odds of *not* winning a drink with 6 tickets is 729/4096. (Unlikely but possible.)
 
not saying your chances ever get above 100%

saying that your ODDS can get over EVEN, because EVEN ODDS are 50%

8 shots made out of 10 attempts is 8 IN 10, but it's 8 made TO 2 miss, or 4 to 1, 80%
1 shot made out of 2 attempts is 1 IN 2, but it's 1 made TO 1 miss, or 1 to 1. even... 50%

shooting 50%, your CHANCES are 1 IN 2, your ODDS are 1 TO 1
 
GrogNerd. My apologies for saying "odds" when I should have said "probability".

Yes, 1 *to* 1 is the same thing as 1 *in* 2.

But my ticket wasn't giving odds. It was giving probabilities.

Probability with 1 ticket: 1 in 4. (Odds: 1 to 3)
Claimed probability with 2 tickets: 1 in 2. (Odds: 1 to 1)

This is *WRONG*!!! The actual probability is 7 in 16. (Odds: 7 to 9)

Then it gave the preposterous probabiltiy with 6 tickets as: More than 1 in 1 (Odds: Better than certain.)

In actuality the actual probabilty is 4-5 (Odds: 4 to 1) [Actually 3,267 in 4,096 and 3,267 to 729].

There. Does that clarify?

Whether probability or odds, you can't add them. If flipping heads is 1 in 2 (50%), then one could incorrectly conclude flipping the coin twice for a head would be 2 in 2 (100%). Obviously wrong. But if the odds are 1 to 1, one could incorrectly conclude flipping for one coin would be 2 to 1 (66%). Not so obviously wrong.

(The actual probability is 3 in 4 or in odds 3 to 1. (HH, HT, TH vs. TT))
 
CreamyGoodness said:
People say really funny things about beer.
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Not in this thread they don't.
So far this thread has been about tipping waitstaff, economics, and the mathematics of odds. If I missed anything I apologize. ;)
 
woozy said:
GrogNerd. My apologies for saying "odds" when I should have said "probability".

Yes, 1 *to* 1 is the same thing as 1 *in* 2.

But my ticket wasn't giving odds. It was giving probabilities.

Probability with 1 ticket: 1 in 4. (Odds: 1 to 3)
Claimed probability with 2 tickets: 1 in 2. (Odds: 1 to 1)

This is *WRONG*!!! The actual probability is 7 in 16. (Odds: 7 to 9)

Then it gave the preposterous probabiltiy with 6 tickets as: More than 1 in 1 (Odds: Better than certain.)

In actuality the actual probabilty is 4-5 (Odds: 4 to 1) [Actually 3,267 in 4,096 and 3,267 to 729].

There. Does that clarify?

Whether probability or odds, you can't add them. If flipping heads is 1 in 2 (50%), then one could incorrectly conclude flipping the coin twice for a head would be 2 in 2 (100%). Obviously wrong. But if the odds are 1 to 1, one could incorrectly conclude flipping for one coin would be 2 to 1 (66%). Not so obviously wrong.

(The actual probability is 3 in 4 or in odds 3 to 1. (HH, HT, TH vs. TT))
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fair enough... but then the chances of winning leave the realm of statistics and enters the world of calculus and limits ->100%, but never quite getting there

got it
 
we now return you to your regularly scheduled beer snobbery

taking the BigHair out to our favorite Mexican restaurant where I will have to explain to the server that no, I do not want a ice cold frosted mug for my SNPA
 
WesleyS said:
Not in this thread they don't.
So far this thread has been about tipping waitstaff, economics, and the mathematics of odds. If I missed anything I apologize. ;)
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I think it went to guitars for a bit. It never goes to the most important subject...Ginger or Mary Ann?
 
>>fair enough... but then with # of tickets over 4, the probabilities become chances of winning more than once

That's not what they were claiming.

And actually you can win more than once with only *two* tickets.

The bottom line is they were adding their probabilities. Which you can't do.

(Although if the probabilities are small the error is minimal. The odds of winning a 1 in a million shot with two shots is actually 1.999999 in a million rather than two in a million but the error is small. The degree of error is proportional to probabilty). The error is small at first but compounds quickly. The probability of winning a 1 in a million shot with six tickets is 1 - (999999/100000)^6 which is, like a millionth and six thousanths of a millionth less than 6 in a million. So basically 5.999998.... in a million. So you might as well add.

But consider 1 in 100 probabilities. The ticket would have claimed 6 in 100 with 6 tickets, but in actuality is would be 1 - (99/100)^6 or 5.85 in 100. Close but inaccurate enough for lawsuit? Basically the probability is 1/100 so the error is a factor of 1 percent.

With 1/4 the error is a factor of 25% which compounded six times is outside all margin of error.

1 ticket is 1 in 4. Fine.
But 2 tickets is 7/16 and not 2 in 4. (12.25% error)
3 tickets is 37/64 and not 3 in 4. (A 28% error)
4 tickets is 175/256 and not 100%. (A 32% error)
4 tickets is 3,267/4,096 and not 150% (A 68% error!!! which is utterly unforgivable as the answer in absurdly more than 100%)
 
Hah!

The professor .... What?

Hmmm, not a dumb thing about beer but a friend keeps claiming that I shouldn't call Ginger Beer non-alcoholic as it's carbonated with yeast and therefore...

One of these days I think I'll try to measure the alcohol content of my ginger beer but I imagine that'll be beyond the margin of error with my hydrometer.

Okay, that *wasn't* a dumb comment about beer, but I *do* feel a little guilty for the probability talk (but not guilty enough to not respond) so I figured I should make an effort to get back on subject...

(... but the Simpson's quote was funny, wasn't it? Love that episode! One of my favs.)
 

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